Еженедельный прогноз Рэймонда Мэрримана

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Week Beginning April 19, 2010

Review and Preview

Raymond MerrimanWith Venus and Jupiter rolling through their ruling signs, equities continued to rally with hardly a correction since the primary and 50-week cycle lows of February 5. That was the case until Friday’s bombshell hit, when the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) leveled a securities fraud charge against Goldman Sachs, alleging that the investment bank knowingly misled investors over the sale of risky sub-prime mortgage derivatives, known as CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations). The allegation implied that Goldman Sachs hired a hedge fund manager to put together these CDO’s, consisting of securities it knew would fail, And then the very hedge fund who designed the derivatives shorted it — those very securities that it sold to the public via Goldman — raking in over a $2B in profits with corresponding losses to the retail investors they solicited to buy them. Is it true? Well, with Mercury about to go retrograde, we may never know the full story. But it was enough to drive the U.S. stock market to its sharpest one-day loss in several weeks. And it is the type of development that can end a bull market and begin another recession. Maybe not at once, but sometime in the future we will look back and point to this incident as the start of something that ended badly, either for the SEC (government) or Goldman Sachs (banking), or the entire financial world.

The timing of this SEC announcement has many shaking their heads in wonderment. It is right on the verge of the very important proceedings regarding the Senate’s (Christopher Dodd’s) Financial Reform bill, the very proposal we warned about as the next big explosion likely to take place in the U.S. Government following the Health Care reform bill (really, more of a Sickness Care reform bill, because it has very few benefits to do with health). Why announce this right after the markets opened on a Friday? And why on this Friday, the third Friday of the month when volatility is always higher than usual due to options expiration? Maybe someone was trying to make a point. Having the stock market plunge, with the cause being tied to yet another banking scandal in a land where banking and Wall Street have been framed as the “Evil Empire,” is certain to find even more populist support for increasing governmental control and regulations over the entire field of finances. After all, here is where the money is.

It is not that the bankers and Wall Street don’t have some responsibility for the economic crisis of 2008-2009. They do and they should be held accountable. But just as complicit in the recent collapse was the U.S. Government itself, and in particular members of Congress, the very leaders who now propose to overhaul the financial system that they too abused, personally benefited from, and made many missteps in preventing the financial crisis when they could have.

This latest drama has the potential to shift the verdict of public opinion firmly against the Lords of Finance, empowering the Lords of Government to now make the move for their next big takeover – and escape from personal accountability. Will it work? Of course not. Not with Pluto in Capricorn and squared by Saturn. No one escapes — not Goldman Sachs, not the “Fat Cat Bankers” who hoard the taxpayer monies given to them to help out the economy, nor the Congressmen who try to manipulate public opinion in order to shift the public disgust from themselves onto the bankers.

At the time of the November mid-term elections, the Moon’s North Node will conjunct Pluto and Venus will be retrograde in Scorpio. There is likely to be huge sweeping sound across the country as public disgust at the manipulation of its government reaches a climax. After all, that’s what Pluto and Scorpio do. They get rid of the toxic and the waste. Pluto and Scorpio is the real mechanism for reform and overhaul, and it lies in the hands of the people who will simply say, “Enough is enough,” as they register their power in the voting booth… or the streets, if not given credible choices on the ballot.

Once again, not all of the equity markets of the world soared to new yearly highs last week. In Europe, all but the AEX of Netherlands made a new high last week. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, Australia’s All Ordinaries made a new yearly high on Thursday and the Hang Seng made a new primary cycle high last Monday. But the yearly highs in the Japanese Nikkei and India’s NIFTY indices still remains back on April 5 and 7 respectively, a time previously identified as a potential temporary top in stock indices. Both the NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average made new yearly highs on Thursday, before falling on Friday’s security fraud charges against Goldman Sachs.

In other markets, Crude Oil failed to take out its yearly high made one day after our last critical reversal date of April 5. Gold and Silver made new cycle highs last Monday, and then along with stocks, took a big fall on Friday’s shocking announcement against Goldman Sachs.

Short-Term Geocosmics

This is likely to begin a two-week period of much misinformation, confusion, and mixed signals. Mercury begins its three-week retrograde trek this Sunday, April 18. This will be followed by Venus square Neptune April 23, and the fourth (of five) passage of the Saturn-Uranus opposition on Monday, April 26.

Mercury retrograde is never an easy time to trade. What is spoken or intended, and what is heard and understood, are oftentimes not the same thought. It would be wise to repeat what you thought you heard, or said, just to make sure you are understood, especially if talking to your broker. Those who rely upon technical studies for guidance are encouraged to remember that such studies tend to be unreliable at this time. Buy and sell signals are more frequently “fake outs.”

But the big storm cloud in the room will be the approaching Saturn-Uranus opposition. If Mercury retrograde corresponds to false buy and signals, then Saturn and Uranus imply that support and resistance zones may offer very little support and resistance. Prices may explode right through these. Yet with Mercury retrograde, such explosions could shortly afterwards be followed by the very vicious reversals one originally expected.

Longer-Term Thoughts

There were some positive and significant geopolitical developments related to long-term planetary cycles that occurred last week. President Obama called together a Nuclear Security Summit of world leaders to discuss how to keep terrorists from obtaining nuclear weapons. A few weeks ago he also hosted a summit that discussed the possibility of a world-wide cyber-terrorist attack. These two issues are very much related to the long-term planetary cycles in force today.

If you were to ask me what are the two most frightening possibilities that might take place under the Cardinal Climax planets involving a T-square between Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto, these would be my choices. In fact, some of you did ask this question at the various talks I gave on “Forecasts for 2008, 2009, and 2010” over the past three years, and you know these were my two answers. These threats are clearly within the realm of possibility from 2010 through 2015, especially when Uranus comes to square Pluto (2012-2015). In the last year, I suggested that if Obama wants to fulfill his higher calling in life, he needs to start calling for world leaders to join him in a summit to discuss these very issues. He needs to take the leadership on these topics, for in my opinion, his higher calling is to bring world leaders together for the purpose of world peace and the elimination of nuclear and terrorist threats. He can do this by asking world leaders to take a firm stand on these issues, thereby isolating those who threaten world peace with their attempt to garner weapons and put innocent lives in danger. And he did exactly that this week, and the world’s response was very positive. When he moves in the direction of his natural talent and skills, such as bringing world leaders to together to focus on world peace, he is successful and respected. With Saturn mostly in Libra for the next two years, maybe we will see more of Obama the statesman who wants peace, and perhaps less of the polarizing and behind-the-scenes maneuvers to raise taxes and increase government spending in a time of high unemployment, economic fragility, and unsustainable national deficits, which will only thwart the prospect of a full economic recovery.

© Raymond A. Merriman


Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.