Еженедельный прогноз Рэймонда Мэрримана

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Week Beginning August 17, 2009

Raymond Merriman Note: Please note that there will be no column next week, August 21, due to my duties at the ISAR conference in Chicago.

Review and Preview

Last week began one of the most intense time bands of geocosmic signatures for this year. Last week also witnessed many world equity markets making new highs for this year. In many cases, these indices are now up over 50% from their lows of last March. Being up over 50% and lasting at least 5 months is our criteria for a bull market within the context of the 4-year cycle. That has now been satisfied, strongly suggesting that last March was the 4-year cycle trough. However, not all indices made new highs last week. Some fell short of their highs formed the prior week, and thus we may be seeing the development of an intermarket bearish divergence pattern, if most indices closed in the lower third of next week’s range.

In Europe, the Netherlands AEX, British FTSE, and Swiss SMI indices all made new highs for this year on Thursday or Friday. However the German DAX index fell slightly short of its yearly high formed the previous week on Friday, August 10, giving a potential intermarket bearish divergence alert for European indices.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, new yearly highs were attained on Friday in both the Japanese Nikkei and Australian All Ords indices. That was not the case, though, with the Hang Seng of Hong Kong or the NIFTY index of India, which made their yearly highs back on August 4, thus creating a potential case of intermarket bearish divergence in this region too.

In the Americas, only Brazil’s Bovespa made a new yearly high last week (Thursday). The Dow Jones and NASDAQ came close, forming double tops on Wednesday to their yearly highs of the prior week. The Merval came close on Friday too, but then sold off into the close. Thus we have the potential for intermarket bearish divergence patterns in each of our three major world regions. If these markets close in the lower third of their range this coming week, it will be considered a valid sell signal.

Gold and Silver also exhibited a possible intermarket bearish sell signal, as Silver made a new cycle high on Friday at 1518, while Gold could not exceed its high of the previous week. The same was true with Crude Oil.

Short-Term Geocosmics:

As stated last week, “We are about to enter one of the most potentially explosive geocosmic time bands of the year. Starting this Monday, August 10, and lasting through August 26, there will be nine important geocosmic signatures occurring…But it goes even beyond that, because these Level One signatures involve the explosive planets Mars, Jupiter and Uranus. You may remember from previous columns that any time there is a cluster of signatures involving these three planets in any combination, the possibility of very large price swings is great… The significance of these signatures is apt to show up in mundane matters too. Although we never know what types of events to expect from Uranus (it rules surprises), we do know that earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, high winds and storms, as well as terrorist strikes, airplane disasters, and electrical outages have happened before under similar configurations.” Last week witnessed a typhoon that killed over 100 in Taiwan, two earthquakes in Asia, the first hurricane of the season, and wildfires in California. The midpoint of this geocosmic cluster doesn’t even hit until August 18, which is also the date that Mars will square Uranus, perhaps the most dangerous of all the signatures in this time band.

In addition to these numerous geocosmic signatures, we also find heliocentric Mercury starting its transit through Sagittarius, August 14-26. This is a period when large price swings are also in evidence, especially in precious metals and currencies. Usually precious metals are bullish for 3-9 days in this interval. If you are a short-term trader who likes volatility and large price swings in short amounts of time, then this coming week may be ideal for you. If you like things calm and under control, it may be better to stand aside and not trade this week.

Longer-Term Thoughts

“We’ve got to make it cool to be in business again. We really have to repolish the value of what business brings to Mankind.”
— Ford CEO and President Alan Mulally, in a speech last week.

Last week’s column discussed the potentially negative implications upon the sustainability of economic growth that would be caused by raising taxes on small businesses, especially as the U.S. is just starting to come out of its worst recession since the “Great Depression” of the 1930’s. The idea was to reverse the historical themes of the 16-20 year Saturn-Pluto waning phase, currently in effect 2001-2020. This is the phase where, historically, capitalistic economies go from budget surplus to government deficits, accompanied by increased government spending, increased taxes, increased interest rates. Predictably, when those policies take effect, recessions become more numerous and longer lasting, and so do bear markets in stocks. This 16-20 year alternating cycle between “good and bad economic times” is not just an astrological theory, but a consistent cycle that has also been observed by none other than Warren Buffet. In an interview in the December 2001 issue of Fortune magazine, Buffet described a similar 17-year alternating period, with these very policy shifts, using examples going back to 1964. Last week’s column concluded that if the government wants to reverse that history, then they will have to reverse the policies that accompany this history. And one of the keys is to deliver policies that help put people back to work so they add to the government’s tax receipts, instead of take from it.

Another means that would aid this goal involves corporate responsibility and sensitivity to the well-being of the greater whole. It has – or should – have nothing to do with government. Presently we are in a 30-year transit of Saturn through the signs of Virgo and Libra – the middle of the zodiac, and a sector in which financial disparities can give rise to class warfare. In today’s world of high unemployment, there is resentment against corporate executives who receive compensation, bonuses, or “golden parachutes” (for retiring), exceeding $10 million, and in many cases, over $100 million. These compensation packages have been given even in spite of a dismal performance by the corporate executive. The fact is that for every $100 million bonus or annual income that is given out to one person, 1666 new people could have been hired at $60,000/year. Instead of collecting unemployment benefits, these additional workers would be paying income and all their withholding taxes (corporate executives do not pay “all their withholding taxes” after a certain amount is earned). Additionally, that is 1666 consumers who will purchase more goods, thus providing a “real” stimulus to the economy.

Yet it is not the role of a healthy government to legislate how a company pays its employees. Rather it is the responsibility of business leaders to the community in which it exists and by which it thrives, to take a more sensitive — and ethical – view of its compensation policies if it wants the support of that community, and if it truly cares about the well-being of that community.

It is not Mulally and Ford Motor Company who were so bad in shirking their responsibilities to society and the community in which they exist over the past decade. In fact, they have been quite generous to their workers by most standards. But you can look to the Banking and Financial sectors who encouraged home buyers to take out mortgages they could not afford… or those multinational corporations that encourage the US government to loan money to lesser developed nations to build their infrastructure, with the caveat that they must use these same corporations and pay them with this very money they just borrowed from the U.S. government (taxpayer’s monies). And then those banks and corporations pay their top executives these huge sums of salary and bonuses, with the aid of that very same government “loan” (taxpayer’s monies), as described in “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man,” by John Perkins (Plume Printing, January 2006). The issue here is one of ethics, an awareness that the type of business one conducts should not be based on simple greed that potentially harms communities, families, and nations, but rather a model that seeks to build lasting value in both that business and the people within the community in which it functions.

Yet here is the thing that few corporate and banking heads understand: Pluto is now in Capricorn, 2008 through 2023. The whole unethical business-banking-political relationship that has taken advantage of societies throughout the world and given rise to resentment and rage over the income disparity between the “haves” and “have nots,” is now due to come crashing down – unless business leaders develop an awareness of their ethical responsibility to the world in which they function. And until that happens too (along with stable government fiscal and taxing policies), this economic recovery is not likely to produce the number of new jobs – and new taxpayers — needed to sustain growth for very long. It is not just government that needs to understand the historical consequences of its spending and taxing policies in the waning phase of the Saturn-Pluto cycle. Business leaders also have to understand the historical consequences of their inequitable compensation and hiring practices during the transit of Saturn through the middle of the zodiac, and how it undermines their relationship to the community in which they operate, and contributes to the social ills that come with high unemployment.

© Raymond A. Merriman


Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.