Еженедельный прогноз Рэймонда Мэрримана
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Week Beginning December 7, 2009
Review and Preview
It was a week of unexpected surprises. It was a week of events consistent with a Uranus station, which pertains to activities and market behavior that are far from consistent.
The week began with investors highly nervous about the consequences of World Dubai’s prior week’s announcement that it wanted to suspend interest payments on $60 billion of debt for up to six months. Would the Uranus station of December 1 coincide with a breakout and sudden panic, which is not unusual for Uranus signatures? Or would it coincide with a bottom from which prices would reverse right back up again, which was also possible under a strong Level One Uranus aspect? With Uranus, you never know what to expect – even as a Financial Astrologer. After bottoming late the prior week, U.S. equity markets did reverse and rallied to new yearly highs by last Wednesday, December 2. Then they sold off into Thursday. Then on Friday, the employment report came out and it was far better than anyone estimated. Stock prices rallied again to another new yearly high in the first 30 minutes of trading. Then they sold off over 200 points the following two hours. Welcome to the world of Uranus, where stability and predictability are concepts waiting to be violated at every opportunity. As a frame of reference, just consider what it has been like since late 2008 when Saturn began its nearly two-year opposition to Uranus that will last into summer 2010. Has anyone been consistently correct about anything? No. It’s been a portal of the unexpected and unplanned for, and that fits extremely well with the principles of Saturn in opposition to Uranus.
In other markets, Gold soared to a new all-time high of 1227.50 on Thursday, only to fall off the cliff and close down nearly $50.00/ounce on Friday. Silver was no better, reaching a new cycle high of 1950 on Thursday and closing almost 100 points lower than that on Friday. The favorable jobs report on Friday gave a much needed boost to the Dollar against most other currencies, but it caused many dollar denominated commodities to fall.
The year is probably going to end with a bang. By that, I mean there are a wealth of important geocosmic signatures in force December 10-29. To be precise, there are 11 aspects and stationary turns taking place during this time band. Two of the most important ones will occur December 20 and 21, just as the Winter Solstice gets underway. Those would include Mars turning retrograde and Jupiter making its third and final conjunction with Neptune in this 2009 series. I will discuss those signatures in the Longer-Term Thoughts section.
For this coming week, the only aspect taking place is the Sun trine Mars on December 10. The majority of the influences that will describe this particular cluster will take place the following two weeks. What may be more significant for this coming week is Venus now in Sagittarius (December 1-25), along with the Sun (November 21-December 21), and both are applying to a favorable trine aspect with Mars in Leo (December 10-17). Leo and Sagittarius are fire signs, while both the Sun and Mars rule fire signs. Generally speaking, equity markets like fire signs, and especially Sagittarius. They represent enthusiasm, and Sagittarius is particularly optimistic. This would portend an upward bias in equity prices. But there are mine fields in this time band, because along their way through Sagittarius, both the Sun and Venus will form a T-square to the Saturn-Uranus opposition. Not only that, but both will also touch off the Saturn-Pluto square as they enter Capricorn (December 21-29).
In short, we are now in an astrological climate where equity prices would normally be rising, but could still be subject to sudden and unexpected events that cause brief but sharp declines. The concern for Financial Astrologers is what happens after December 21 – after the Sun and Venus move into Capricorn, along with Mercury and Pluto, and the last conjunction between Jupiter and Neptune ends… not to mention Mars turns retrograde for the following ten weeks. It’s a picture that reminds me of the old 60’s song called “Where Have All the Flowers Gone?” Except now the title might be “Where Has All the Money Gone?” The answer is: to the banks.
Every so often it seems necessary to remind readers that the purpose of this column is not to forecast market behavior, but rather to educate on the principles of astrology as it applies to financial markets and to the mundane-political world. Yes, it is true that I will occasionally make a market forecast in this column. But forecasting markets for purposes of ongoing trading strategies is the purpose of subscription reports.
So, in the spirit of education, let’s look at the forthcoming Mars retrograde and Jupiter-Neptune conjunction period of December 20-21. These are contradictory dynamics, for Mars stationary is usually a time of aggression and the potential threat of war, whereas Jupiter-Neptune combinations correspond to the quest for peace. It is more passive. So, in short, we are likely to see signs of passive-aggressive behavior in our world leaders for the next few days.
We see these conflicting dynamics at work today in regards to Iran and its violation of international agreements on the matter of nuclear development. We see it in regards to President Obama’s decision to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan, in the face of opposition within his own party to instead withdraw troops and end the war. In principle, Mars retrograde is not considered a favorable time to initiate a troop surge and increase aggression towards war. It is time when the aggressor may be confident of his powers, especially with Mars in Leo. In fact, Mars in Leo can be overconfident, and given that Mr. Obama is a Leo himself, he needs to be especially careful in his role as Commander in Chief these next three months, lest he makes an impulsive military decision that backfires. That’s Mars retrograde.
Mars turns retrograde in the skies, as seen from Earth, approximately every 25-26 months. If we look for times in the recent past when Mars turned retrograde around 19 degrees of Leo, all we will see is December 12, 1977 (11 degrees of Leo) and December 26, 1962 (24 degrees of Leo). The 1962 instance found stock prices making a modest trough, followed by a continuation of the bull market into mid-February. This would fit a pattern seen every three years so far in this decade. That is, the markets did not have the usual October surprise in 2000, 2003, and 2006, but instead just continued higher into January-March of the next year before falling hard to a low in February-April. In the 1977 case, it was just the opposite. The market made a low around the time of the retrograde, but only rallied 5 days, and then sold off through the remainder of the Mars retrograde. However, Gold prices made a low at that time, around $160.00/ounce. Gold has not been that low since. You will find many cases in the past where Gold prices made a low or a high within a few days of Mars changing directions, and that low or high held for several months.
The Jupiter-Neptune conjunction will be the third and final one in this series that began May 27, 2009. The second passage was July 10. In the two prior instances, equities first made a major cycle trough and then a primary cycle trough. In both cases, equity prices soared afterwards. In the first case, prices soared sharply for the next two weeks to a primary cycle crest. This is the usual pattern of stock prices under Jupiter and Neptune, as reported in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” But politically, the end of the Jupiter-Neptune series of conjunctions may also indicate the end of the period of hope and idealism regarding some world leaders and their inspirational visions of the future. Idealism and inspiration may give way now to the reality that actions, not just words, are what really matters. It’s time to focus on getting people back to work and getting the economy back on sound footing, which ironically was Obama’s very message to business leaders this week too. Let’s see if this initiative can move from the domain of words to the platform of action and results.
© Raymond A. Merriman
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.