Еженедельный прогноз Рэймонда Мэрримана
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Week Beginning July 27, 2009
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The post Jupiter-Neptune retrograde conjunction period continues to correlate with soaring equity prices. The second of three passes of this 13-year geocosmic cycle was completed on July 10. As we look back, we can see that most of the world equity indices bottomed July 8-13, coincident with this powerful geocosmic cycle. In the study of financial market timing, that low is known as a primary cycle trough, a cyclical phenomenon that tends to happen approximately every 18 weeks, depending on which index one is watching. In some cases it may happen as frequently as every 13-19 weeks, such as in Japan. In others cases it may happen at the 17-27 week interval, such as in the European indices. But according to cycles’ theory, once any cycle bottoms, the first stage of the new cycle is almost always bullish. That is where we are now in terms of the primary cycles of the world stock markets. We are in the first phase, and hence it is very bullish. How long this rally will last depends on the phasing of the even longer-term cycles. If the longer-term cycles are bearish, then this primary cycle will top out in its first 6-week phase. If the longer-term cycles are bullish, then it will top out in its second or third 6-week phase. In terms of Financial Astrology, we can also anticipate that a market will reverse when there is a confluence of geocosmic signatures in a short amount of time. We are entering such a time frame right now. Thus, as bullish as things appear to be at the moment, the study of Financial Astrology suggests that caution is now warranted between now and mid-August.
In other markets, Gold and Silver continued their rallies last week as well. Gold traded as high as 957.50 on Thursday, up over 50.00 in just two weeks. Silver soared to 1389 on Friday. The prior week it had been as low as 1244. There was also a solar eclipse last week that this column indicated might be important to grain markets. Sure enough, Corn bottomed right on the eclipse day, and Soybeans tested their low of the prior week, then both rallied smartly into Thursday before pulling back into the close of the week. If they hold the lows of the past two weeks, these grains could undergo more upward movement in the next 2-5 weeks, making this a market for traders to watch closely.
Venus continues its unusual aspects this week, forming a trine to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (July 26-28), and a T-square to the Saturn-Uranus opposition (July 21-28). On Friday, July 31, the planet of love and wealth will ingress into the cardinal sign of Cancer, always an important point for interest rate-related markets, like currencies and treasury notes and bonds. On Saturday, August 1, Venus will be in opposition to Pluto, which is in the first degree of Capricorn, equally important to interest rate markets as well as the Federal Reserve Board.
Its all about Venus right now. In the study of Astrology, Venus rules assets, like equities. It also rules currencies (money) and sugar. These markets are most likely to be very active during the last two weeks of July, possibly coinciding with the completion of a primary cycle and consequent reversal of significance to traders. Psychologically, Venus pertains to the need for relationships, the urge to connect with others and attain agreement and support. Given that it makes a favorable trine to Jupiter and Neptune, and given that Neptune is associated with the healing, health, and helping professions, it is not surprising that the news of late has focused so heavily on the issue of universal health insurance. President Obama is campaigning tirelessly to make this vision a reality. The problem, of course, comes in the form of how to pay for it. Who gets taxed in order to provide this coverage to all? That’s the domain of Pluto – taxes and debt. So on the one hand, Venus shows the ambition and drive to provide a security net of health insurance to everyone (in its trine to the universal Jupiter-Neptune). On the other hand, it shows the struggle to gain support for the financial plans necessary to afford this coverage.
“ …..The opposition Saturn Uranus is leading and Jupiter amplifies its effects, and this trio is generally present in economic crisis as well as in wars, the former leading to the latter, both being equivalent to ravages. Here we have the coming up of the waning phase of the Kondratiev cycle, amplified by the presence of Jupiter and this makes us fear an economic depression, the first big one in that XXIst century. If this prognostication were not to occur, then we would dread the first big crisis of the international community: nationalist drives leading to a clash of economic interests in a metastasis of violence…..” Andre Barbault, written in 1990 in the magazine “L’Astrologue” , n°92, a special issue, a “Numero Spécial XXIe siècle”, pages 36-37 under the title “Les bouleversements de 2010.”
The problem with the 13-year conjunction cycle of Jupiter and Neptune now so evident is that it can be incredibly optimistic and altruistic without any evidence of reality to support such a faith. It can seem like the “irrational exuberance” observation of the investment community by Alan Greenspan some years back. The problem with Saturn in opposition to Uranus is that it can be incredibly harsh and cynical, with such an explosion of fear that it is difficult for people to maintain a sense of hope and optimism about the future. The “situation is bad and getting worse,” seems to be the core of this outlook. The Jupiter-Neptune crowd seems airy-fairy and willing to believe that “…if you can think it, then it will be.” The Saturn-Uranus crowd, on the other hand, may be so skeptical that they appear to be too negative thinking to anyone who disagrees with them. Where is the middle ground? Where is the bridge of connection that Venus seeks? There doesn’t appear to be any, as the two sides become increasingly more polarized.
We also see this same conflict appearing in the world of financial markets right now. The “equities” crowd sees signs of economic hope. Companies are reporting profits again, the rate of unemployment is lessening, and many economic reports show the economy is starting to turn around. But a look at the precious metals crowd shows deep concerns about the possibility of inflation returning, as well as the prospect of another economic shock to the world financial system. To them, this economic recovery has no legs. It is nothing more than a “dead cat bounce” in a longer-term economic contraction. Just because the rate of decline is not as steep as it was a few months ago, jobs are still being lost, business are still going out of business, and homes are still being foreclosed in record numbers. You drop an object from the top of a building, and when it hits the cement, the rate of decline suddenly lessens. But it doesn’t mean the object is now better off because its slope of descent has leveled off. So which is it?
As noted Mundane Astrologer Andre Barbault of Paris, France forecasted way back in 1990, the Saturn-Uranus opposition portends an economic crisis, the likes of which we have not seen in many, many years. In fact, it is the most serious aspect for an economically dangerous period that he described. And it peaks when Jupiter enters a hard aspect to that dual, which will happen in the latter half of 2010. The bottom line is that, despite the cautious optimism of Jupiter and Neptune, and the assurances of progress by such Jupiterian personages as Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke and others, this is still not a time to be overly speculative with your money. In fact, it may be time to consider ways to hedge your current investments, and protect your current assets, as equities have now recovered nearly one-third of the amount they fell between October 2007 and March 2009. It seems like more right now, doesn’t it? But maybe it’s just the mirage of Jupiter and Neptune still at work.
© Raymond A. Merriman
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.