Еженедельный прогноз Рэймонда Мэрримана

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Week Beginning May 10, 2010

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Raymond MerrimanThis is for all you astrologers “who have been criticized and hated on, for being different,” for believing differently, as the song goes (“NaNaNaNa: I Walks With God” by Mike Dunn). Financial Astrology works. In fact, nothing works better at identifying short-term market timing opportunities days, weeks, months, and even years ahead of time.

Now I am not saying the correlation to every financial market top or bottom is 100%. But via the parameters outlined in the Volume 3 of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” the rate of frequency between a geocosmic-based critical reversal date and major reversals in the U.S. stock market is approximately 82%. It struck again, dead-on, with the yearly high of April 26, the exact date of the Saturn-Uranus opposition.

On that date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an intraday yearly high of 11,258. That was not only right on one the most powerful geocosmic correlates to market reversals, but it was also within just a couple of points of an exact 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the prior bear market decline from October 11, 2007 to the low of March 6, 2009. Fibonacci corrections are mathematical calculations that technicians – like myself – use to pinpoint price targets for cycle lows and highs, which will be the subject of Volume 5 of the “Stock Market Timing” series. When used in combination with certain technical and pattern recognition studies, the field of geocosmic and cyclical studies becomes a very powerful toolkit for forecasting market moves.

Let me demonstrate, via the market activity of last week. On April 26, the DJIA made its yearly high at 11,258, as stated above. The immediate downside price target from that high, as reported in our various subscription reports, would be 9800-10,200. On Thursday, there was a market glitch triggered by a possible breakdown of trading systems. The market went into free fall and stopped at 9869. That low represented a decline of 1389 points from the high of April 26. There are several astrological lessons that can be derived from this.

First of all, “glitches triggered by a possible breakdown of trading systems” refers to two astrological conditions that were in force. Mercury was retrograde (April 18-May 11). Mercury rules things like communication failures, such as errors in orders. The second factor is that Saturn was still very close in orb to its opposition of Uranus. Uranus specifically rules matters like computers and technology, and Saturn has association with loss. Here is a case of huge losses facilitated by a possible breakdown in technology and errors in the correct placing of orders.

But let’s back up a bit. This is the 4th of 5 passes of the 45-year year opposition between Saturn and Uranus. The market pattern in each passage has been very similar. That is, in each case the stock market topped out, followed by a sell-off. The first passage was November 4, 2008. That was Election Day, and the DJIA topped out at 9654. Less than three weeks later, on November 21, the DJIA was at 7449, a loss of over 2200 points. The 2nd passage was on February 5, 2009. Once again the DJIA made a crest, this time at 8315 just two trading days later. In less than 4 weeks, the DJIA bottomed at 6470, a loss of over 1800 points. The third passage was not quite as impressive. It took place on September 15, 2009. Most stock indices topped out by September 18, although the DJIA had one more burst up the following week (others indices did not). However, in the next two weeks it fell nearly 500 points to bottom on October 2.

And here we are in the 4th passage now. The DJIA made a new yearly high exactly on the date of the opposition, and so far it has fallen nearly 1400 points in less than 2 weeks. What are the odds that this correlation is random?

I bring this up because, like many of you who use astrology and know first-hand its value, I get a lot of mail from those who are critical of astrology being of any value as a market timing tool. It may be spot on several instances in succession, but as soon as it fails to pinpoint a reversal in the particular market they trade, the letters start to pour in. It doesn’t matter that the reversal dates were valid in markets they don’t trade, or even in other stock indices throughout the world, or even if it correlated with major political events that change the direction of the world or a nation. The critical reversal date in mid-March, for example, didn’t correlate with a top in the DJIA. But it did correlate with the passage of the Health Care Reform bill, a high in the Euro currency and a low in Grains and Crude Oil. The April 5 geocosmic critical reversal date did not correlate with a reversal from a high in the DJIA, but it was the yearly high in Crude Oil and many stock indices throughout the world including the Japanese Nikkei.

In other markets, Gold is again testing its all-time high last week, trading slightly above $1200, as expected. And the Euro currency fell to 1.2500, which was one of the two long-term price targets given in our reports, even back when it was trading in the 1.5000 range.But the movement in the Dollar against the Euro was nothing compared to the strength of the Yen against the Euro. Everyone talks about the U.S. Dollar as the currency of safe haven. But it was the Japanese Yen that benefitted the most from the troubles in the Euro zone and its currency.

Short-Term Geocosmics

We are now at the end of the three-week Mercury retrograde time band of April 19-May 11. We are also in the May 6-17 time band of heliocentric (not geocentric) Mercury in Sagittarius, when very sharp price moves are usually experienced, as witnessed late last week when this transit began.

But last week’s volatility may be indicative of what to expect late this month and next month when the Jupiter and Uranus enter Aries, an astrological condition that will likely have impact on all financial markets through the summer. We may get another dose of this “cosmic stimulus program” the following week when transiting Venus will enter Cancer (May 19), setting off the Cardinal Climax by entering the “grand square” position of the T-square between Jupiter-Uranus, Pluto, and Saturn. The week after that will witness the 20-year opposition between Jupiter and Saturn. It’s all starting to manifest now, and with it will come exceptional trading opportunities in which to make – or lose — a lot of money.

Longer-Term Thoughts

“Bubbles are far more dangerous when they are fueled by debt…Indeed, political disunity is often a key driver of sovereign defaults and financial crises. Pre-election posturing and post-election uncertainty routinely exacerbate the challenge of developing a coherent and credible policy response."
— Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, “This Time is Different,” Princeton University Press, 2009.

The book mentioned above contains an abundance of studies on defaults, bankruptcies, hyper-inflation and currency debasement of countries over the past 800 years. The fact is that we are living in one of these financial crises right now. And the study of Financial Astrology indicates that the consequences of many global financial missteps that took place early in this decade may last yet another 5-10 years. The authors are very clear on many of the causes that lead up to these consequences, and what types of policies can counteract them.

But let’s just consider the quote given above. Jupiter and Uranus are coming together in Aries, starting late this month and lasting into early September. This is a signature suggesting excessive speculation, which is the cause underlying most bubbles in financial markets. But in this case, Jupiter and Uranus are also in opposition to Saturn, which can pertain to losses as well. In other words, this set up can be a financial bubble (Jupiter-Uranus in Aries), or a financial meltdown, as in a financial panic. Or both, one after the other.

Adding fuel to this dynamic is transiting Pluto in Capricorn, in square aspect to the other three planets. As stated numerous times, Pluto pertains to debt. And today, as discussed in so many of these columns, world-wide debt is exploding. Governments around the world are spending much more than they can afford. You saw the results of this policy in Greece last week, but not far behind in similar financial straits may be Portugal, Spain, Belgium, and France.

Can we make it through this kind of situation? I don’t know for sure. But I do believe this: whatever fiscal and monetary decisions that will be made during the next six months will likely determine how deep and how long this crisis will last. And history is quite clear on this: if you don’t get your financial house in order, bankruptcy is the result. It is the same for governments as it is for individuals. You need a budget that you can live within, and you need to determine which (spending) programs you can afford within that budget. To enact the spending first – without regard to budget and affordability – is ass backwards and bound to lead to unexpected stresses that one is not prepared for. But then again, doesn’t that sound like Uranus square Pluto (2012-2015), the heaviest aspect within the Cardinal Climax? This doesn’t have to be a disaster waiting to happen if we just get real about putting the horse before the cart. We should know in the next three-six months if we are getting it right.

© Raymond A. Merriman


Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.